Social Distancing Scenarios

Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

• Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
• % of original \(R0\): Percent of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
• % Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-05-24) level of social distancing / contact rate

Scenario	Percent orig. R0	Percent increase from current R0	Effective R0
0	22.50%	0.00%	0.91
1	35.40%	57.30%	1.43
2	48.30%	114.70%	1.95
3	61.20%	172.00%	2.48
4	74.20%	229.80%	3.00
5	87.10%	287.10%	3.52
6	100.00%	344.40%	4.05

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts

Scenario 0

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 0.91
• % of original R0: 22.5
• % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.43
• % of original R0: 35.4
• % Increase from current: 57.3

Scenario 2

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.95
• % of original R0: 48.3
• % Increase from current: 114.7

Scenario 3

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 2.48
• % of original R0: 61.2
• % Increase from current: 172

Scenario 4

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3
• % of original R0: 74.2
• % Increase from current: 229.8

Scenario 5

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.52
• % of original R0: 87.1
• % Increase from current: 287.1

Scenario 6

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 4.05
• % of original R0: 100
• % Increase from current: 344.4