Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario Percent orig. R0 Percent increase from current R0 Effective R0
0 22.50% 0.00% 0.91
1 35.40% 57.30% 1.43
2 48.30% 114.70% 1.95
3 61.20% 172.00% 2.48
4 74.20% 229.80% 3.00
5 87.10% 287.10% 3.52
6 100.00% 344.40% 4.05

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts


Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 0.91
  • % of original R0: 22.5
  • % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.43
  • % of original R0: 35.4
  • % Increase from current: 57.3

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.95
  • % of original R0: 48.3
  • % Increase from current: 114.7

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.48
  • % of original R0: 61.2
  • % Increase from current: 172

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3
  • % of original R0: 74.2
  • % Increase from current: 229.8

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.52
  • % of original R0: 87.1
  • % Increase from current: 287.1

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 4.05
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 344.4